Sunday, November 13, 2016

Today's Links

Excerpt Trump campaign speech: "Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you the American people. The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interests (photos of George Soros and janet yellen) , they partner with these people who don't have your interests in mind. (photo of CFR) The political establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration, and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry. The political establishment has brought about the destruction of our factories and our jobs as they flee to mexico, china and other countries all around the world. It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you."

1--Trump's Homeland Security choices

Other names being floated for the Homeland Security post include former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who leads Trump’s transition team....
Several government officials said they had been told that a more incendiary choice – ousted Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio  is also under consideration.

2--Mark Blyth and Wendy Schiller – Election 2016: What Happened and Why? (Brilliant)

3--Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there

4--Making the case for trump's economic policy

During the fiscal year ended last September, the budget deficit rose for the first time in five years to $587 billion – showing a 34 percent increase from the previous year. The public debt at this writing stood at $19.8 trillion - 106 percent of GDP, and counting.
These are the most glaring and the most widely publicized fiscal problems. And here is another zinger: The government's unfunded liabilities of $104.1 trillion – where the current deficits of the politically untouchable entitlement programs of Social Security and Medicare account for a total of $43.1 trillion. ...

Structural policies of market deregulation to increase economic efficiency also have income redistribution effects. We surely need some of those. But we also need structural policies to improve infrastructure and to increase the stock and the quality of human capital through education and healthcare, in order to raise labor productivity and the noninflationary growth of the economy....

The total stock of U.S. government debt currently held by non-residents ($6.2 trillion) has been on a steady decline since last March, with the foreign official holdings falling 5.5 percent in the year to August.

Investment thoughts

The election winner is inheriting problems of accelerating cost and price inflation, sharply rising budget deficits, debilitating public debt and a worrying increase in America's net foreign liabilities.
These problems must be addressed with (a) tightening monetary policies, (b) income redistribution and rearrangements of national priorities, (c) structural policies to rebuild infrastructure and increase the stock and quality of human capital, and (d) trade policies to reduce excessive global imbalances.

5--Putin aide: Trump could build confidence with NATO pullback

6--Important  Trump Adviser Takes Aim at Conservatives’ Budgetary Restraint

Scaramucci repeated Trump’s pledge to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure “financed by historically cheap debt and public-private partnerships,” and said the plan would lower long-term deficits. He sounded a softer note on trade than Trump had declared on the campaign trail, suggesting the president-elect is open to negotiations before slapping barriers on imports....

Additionally, Scaramucci suggested Trump would seek to reverse a recent Labor Department ruling that requires brokers to put clients’ interests ahead of their own when handling retirement investments.
Scaramucci said Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent would add 3.3 percent to gross domestic product

Don’t expect President-elect Donald Trump to adhere consistently to traditional Republican economic policy, or even to positions Trump staked out during his election campaign.
That’s the message in an opinion piece written in the Financial Times by Trump economic adviser Anthony Scaramucci that took a swipe at the budgetary discipline promoted for years by fiscal conservatives in the U.S. and Europe. It may point to a coming rift between the new executive branch and the Republican-controlled Congress.
“Mr. Trump is a different type of leader not burdened by rigid ideology,” Scaramucci said. “He is not dogmatic about policy positions. Rather, he has set bold targets from which to begin negotiations.”

Scaramucci ran though some of Trump’s previously-announced plans, including a proposal for a 10-percent one-off repatriation fee for companies. Trump would “ideally” like to see corporate tax rates cut to 15 percent from 35 percent, he said, adding that even a reduction to equal the U.K. rate of 20 percent would add nearly $600 billion to U.S. GDP.
Founder of the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, Scaramucci, 52, was named on Friday to the executive committee of Trump’s transition team. The 16-person list also includes Dune Capital Management chief executive officer Steve Mnuchin, who was finance chairman of Trump’s campaign; Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee; and three of the president-elect’s children.

Battling Deflation

Scaramucci said global economies are still battling deflation largely because of a movement toward fiscal austerity that followed the 2008-2009 global economic crisis.
“While easy-money monetary policies have exacerbated the income divide, central bankers handcuffed by political dysfunction have had little choice but to provide extraordinary accommodation,” he said. “Business people like Mr. Trump understand you can grow yourself out of excessive debt.”

7--The 2016 election was stolen

is astounding that the major television and print media organizations that force-fed Americans all their polling data for months, to say nothing of giving Trump hundreds of millions of dollars in free media, will not discuss why their exit polls projecting a Clinton victory were wrong. As election integrity Theodore de Macedo Soares blogged on Friday:
“According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts. With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 302 versus 205 for Trump. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and holds a narrow lead in the national vote count still in progress.
“Exit polls were conducted in 28 states. In 23 states the discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count favored Trump. In 13 of these states the discrepancies favoring Trump exceeded the margin of error of the state.”

the national media’s Election Day exit polls found that Hillary Clinton was ahead in four key states — North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida — but lost the computerized vote count. That’s not the first time that a “red shift” occurred between live exit poll results posted on CNN and the later vote count results. That suggests the exit polls were deeply flawed or the vote count was compromised or stolen.

Before the campaigning began, insiders in 14 Republican-majority states adopted new voting restrictions and barriers—such as new ID requirements. In Wisconsin, where Trump was ahead by 27,000 votes, attorneys trying to challenge that state’s new law said upwards of 300,000 residents lacked the required ID. That early attack was bookended at the election’s close by Republican election officials, from Ohio’s secretary of state to North Carolina county election boards, who gamed the field for brazen partisan advantage. They curtailed early voting, moved precincts, inaccurately purged voter rolls, and made perplexing decisions—as in Ohio—to not activate voting machine audit software, which means the results cannot be verified.

8--Who Benefits From Donald Trump's Tax Plan?

9--Blame the Fed for Trump's Victory

10--Trump hammered the Federal Reserve as a candidate. As president, he could quickly reshape it

Donald Trump leveled unprecedented criticism at the Federal Reserve during the campaign. As president, he could get to quickly reshape it — and the economic conditions that central bank policymakers will be facing.
Trump will have the opportunity to appoint as many as five new members to the seven-person Fed Board of Governors during his first year and a half in office. That includes a new chairperson to replace Janet L. Yellen, whose term expires in early 2018.

While that creates great uncertainty for the future of the central bank, Trump’s presidency might be an unexpected boon in the short term, some analysts said.
His policies could create the circumstances that Fed monetary policymakers desperately have been awaiting to begin pushing rock-bottom interest rates closer to normal.
"From a pure monetary policy framework, this is probably the best news they could receive," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank in Chicago.

For months, Yellen and her colleagues have been stuck in an uncomfortable position.
The Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December 2015. Their plan was to start consistently raising their benchmark short-term interest rate, now just below 0.5%, so it could be lowered again to boost economic activity when the next downturn comes. Yet Fed officials weren't keen on additional increases with inflation stubbornly low because that risked hurting investment and growth.

"They've been holding off until they see signs of inflation and inflation expectations," said John Cochrane, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
Enter Trump, who has pledged large tax cuts and new federal tax credits to fuel a surge in private spending for roads, bridges, airports and other infrastructure. Pumping billions of dollars more into the economy will not only kick-start growth in the short run but also spur inflation

Trump hammered Yellen in the final months of the campaign, accusing her of keeping the benchmark rate “artificially low” to help fellow Democrats President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
“I think she is very political and to a certain extent, I think she should be ashamed of herself.” Trump told CNBC in mid-September. At the first presidential debate two weeks later, he declared that “the Fed is being more political than Hillary Clinton.”
And Trump’s final campaign video included images of the Fed and Yellen, casting her has part of the “political establishment” that has “bled our country dry.”

James Pethokoukis, an economic policy analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank, said it’s possible — though not likely — that Yellen would step down once Trump takes office in January. Two of her predecessors, Ben Bernanke and Paul Volcker, remained in their positions despite changes in leadership.
“Never before have we had an incoming president not just criticize how Fed policy has been executed … but accuse the Fed chair of undermining the institution by being in political cahoots with his opponent and the White House,” Pethokoukis said. “We’re off the grid into uncharted territory.”...

She gave Trump credit for making the Fed’s low-interest rate policy a campaign issue.
“He has said he thinks monetary policy can have political ramifications. I applaud him for recognizing that,” Shelton said. “I think especially after eight years of the low-interest rate policies, growth has not been what might have been hoped.”
Even if Yellen hangs on, Trump will have the unusual ability to dramatically transform the Fed early in his presidency.
He immediately would get to fill two existing vacancies that are open because Senate Republicans blocked nominees Obama made last year. There has been speculation that Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo would step down early next year, creating a third opening.

Yellen's term as chairwoman ends Feb. 3, 2018, and although she could stay on as a governor, until 2024, former chairs rarely do that. Likewise, Stanley Fischer’s term as vice chairman ends in June 2018 and he also probably would leave the Fed completely.
That would mean that by mid-2018 five of the seven Fed governors would be Trump appointees. Obama only appointed four governors in his entire first term. Ronald Reagan appointed just two in his first term.
“It’s a game changer,” Swonk said of the appointments Trump could make. “It would be a very different Fed.”

11--Is M Flynn lobbying for Turkey

12--Our ally Turkey is in crisis and needs our support, Michael Flynn, trump advisor

13--Nusra On The Run - Trump Induces First Major Policy Change On Syria

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