Thursday, June 30, 2016

Special Links

1---Deutsche Bank teetering on the brink....


Deutsche Bank hit headlines two years ago. Since then significant share of its assets were cashed in, few thousands of employees were sacked and the problems were gone. Gone or only forgotten? One is for sure, they did not disappear.
Deutsche Bank is the second largest investment bank in the world. Cumulatively its assets are worth 2 trillion EUR and deposits peak over 570 billion EUR.

The real problem of Deutsche Bank is its exposure on derivative market. The sum of just under 55 trillion EUR is 20 times bigger than the GDP of Germany. Majority – 70% - of all derivatives are interest rate derivatives and they are secured with government bonds.
Problems with huge pool of derivatives (only JP Morgan is ahead by small margin) were soothed in the last two years by the hike of government bond prices which are the pillar of securities of the derivatives. In February this year government bonds reached their top price (with yield close to zero). Afterwards prices started to fall and with them value of securities that hold together the whole pyramid of derivatives.....

Will Deutsche Bank be next Lehman?
No one knows that but risk is high. The DB employs nearly 100 thousand people worldwide and value of its derivatives is higher than global GDP.
What is worse is that the main security used here is government bonds that are losing its value continuously. Prices of bonds of the biggest countries lost 10-12% in just three months. For years interest rate market was being successfully manipulated but it seems that market forces finaly are breaking through.

Market of bonds is big enough that there is no way for everyone to escape its consequences without creating a crisis. Today’s situation is operating on the first come, first served basis. Knowing that there is no liquidity (demand) in the market and with this scale central banks cannot save the day anymore.
It is worth remembering that financial crises are happening once per 7 years, give or take. We had ‘black Monday’ of 1987. The Great Bond Massacre in 1994. The burst of NASDAQ bubble in 2000 is remembered by everyone just like the collapse of Lehman Brothers which nearly ended up dragging whole financial system down with it.

The Deutsche Bank problem is serious because of many reasons. The DB is way bigger than the Lehman Brothers thus, scale of the potential damage is incomparable. Modern global financial sector resembles a system of communicating vessels. The interconnectedness is very strong.
Problems of one bank nearly immediately creates domino effect onto other banks. Not only banks but also countries themselves are affected. What is more, central banks already exhausted opportunities to smooth out crises. Every single time in the past the quantitative easing (pumping money into the markets) was used and lowering interest rates to prevent credit crunch.

2--Deutsche Bank Poses Greatest Risk to Global Financial System, IMF Says


Deutsche Bank AG is the riskiest financial institution in the world as a potential source of external shocks to the financial system, according to the International Monetary Fund...

The importance of Deutsche Bank emphasizes the need for risk management, intense supervision and monitoring cross-border exposure as well as the ability of globally systemic banks to carry out new resolution regimes, IMF said.

Germany needs to examine whether its resolution plans for banks are operable, including a timely valuation of assets to be transferred, continued access to financial market infrastructures, and whether authorities can ensure control over a bank if resolution actions take a few days, if needed, by imposing a moratorium, the IMF said.

3--Soros in huge bet against Deutsche Bank


Soros Fund Management, an American firm, and Marshall Wace, a British hedge fund, both took big bets against Deutsche Bank last Friday, the day after the UK's referendum vote on leaving the European Union.
The funds each took short positions equivalent to 0.5 percent of Deutsche Bank's share capital, according to a German filing published on Monday, June 27. German newspaper "Die Welt" was the first to report the sale.

In short sales, investors agree to sell shares they don't own yet, in the belief they will be able to buy them later at a lower price. The difference in price is their profit - or loss, if the bet goes wrong.
According to news agency Bloomberg, the short positions were worth about 100 million euros each, based on Deutsche Bank's highest share price on Friday.
When markets closed on Monday, Deutsche Bank shares had lost about 20 percent of their value. Since then, the stocks have recovered somewhat, climbing almost four percent on Tuesday.

4--Treasuries' Brexit Rally Has Bill Gross Eyeing Record-Low Yields

  
Bill Gross says the Treasury 10-year note’s record-low yield level is in danger of being breached after Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union amplified risks to global economic growth.
Gross joins money managers from Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit, Eagle Asset Management and Sage Advisory Partners in saying 10-year note yields may fall to 1.25 percent, below the record 1.38 percent reached in July 2012. The predictions come as confidence dwindles that the U.S. economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year amid a growing roster of worldwide risks.

5---Big banks dial up buybacks after stress-testing win


Bank of America Merrill Lynch increased its dividend by 50 percent, to $0.075 per share, and authorized a $5 billion stock buyback.
PNC Financial Services increased its dividend by 4 cents, to 55 cents a share, and announced a share repurchase program of $2 billion.
JPMorgan Chase announced a buyback plan for $10.6 billion in stock and will continue its current common stock dividend of 48 cents a share

6--World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank Crashes Back To Record Lows  --Deutsche Bank continues its downward plunge


7--Why is America so alarmed by a Brexit vote


The demographic parallels between those backing Brexit and Mr Trump’s supporters are too close to ignore — almost eerily so. Their motives are equally simplistic. Leaving Europe is to Brexiters what building a wall with Mexico is to Trumpians — a guillotine on the cacophonous multiculturalism of 21st-century life. From an empirical point of view, Mr Trump’s beautiful wall is no different to the splendid isolation of Boris Johnson, the leading Brexit campaigner: both are reckless illusions. From a poetic standpoint, however, they offer a clean solution to the alienations of the postmodern society. Winston Churchill joked that Britain and America were divided by a common language. Today blue-collar whites on both sides of the Atlantic are speaking in the same idiom. They both yearn for the certainties of a lost age.

8--Across the postindustrial world, the populist right is excelling in the old bastions of the left....



If there is a lesson for the United States in the decision by British voters to exit the European Union, it is the importance of the emerging split between the beneficiaries of multicultural globalism and the working-class ethno-nationalists who feel left behind. These issues have the potential to overcome longstanding partisan ties, even in the United States....

The New Democrats and New Labour did not embrace “free trade.”  They embraced deals that gave CEOs exceptional leverage to prevent effective environmental, financial, and safety regulation and increased leverage against their workers.  Those deals were drafted and negotiated largely by corporate CEOs for the benefit of corporate CEOs.  The key to the deals is not “trade,” much less “free trade,” but the kangaroo, non-judicial arbiters that can bankrupt smaller nations that dare to protect their citizens and workers’ health and safety through law and regulation.
The New Democrats did not embrace “lower taxes,” they embraced greatly reduced government services and protections and an eroded safety nets

Today, Nate Cohn warned Democrats that “Right-Wing Populism Is Prevailing in Left-Wing Strongholds Around the World.”  Cohn’s warning repeats Frank’s warnings, but ignores entirely the reasons for Frank’s warnings, the fact that he made the warnings, the New Democrats’ scorn for his warnings.  Cohn vaguely references the fact that the workers have been on the losing side of a policy of rigging the financial system to favor the wealthiest and most immoral financial leaders for three decades of rule by Republicans and New Democrats, but ignores the tie between those the anti-labor policies, the rigging of the system, and the resultant losses to the working class while the wealthy grow far richer.  This is deliberate, for Cohn writes from the policy perspective of the New Democrats and the Republicans on these issues.  He cannot, therefore, address Frank’s analysis of the nature and horrific results of the New Democrats’ anti-worker policies and contempt.

Cohn’s article makes the broader point that the same dynamic put in place in the U.S. by the New Democrats and the Republicans has occurred in the UK with the BREXIT vote, but fails to explain that Tony Blair consciously modeled “New Labour” on the Clinton’s “New Democrats” and adopted a broad range of the Tories’ policies.  New Labour’s adoption of the same contempt for labor and anti-labor policies pioneered by the Clintons produced the same horrific results for the working class in much of the UK that the New Democrats’ policies produced in the U.S.  It also produced the same smoldering rage in much of the working class and resulting loss of support of the working class for the Labour Party that the New Democrat’s produced in the U.S

9--Why NIRP doesn't work--Why Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) is Ineffective and Dangerous

   
NIRP is quickly becoming a consensus policy within the economics establishment. This paper argues that consensus is dangerously wrong, resting on flawed theory and flawed policy assessment. Regarding theory, NIRP draws on fallacious pre-Keynesian economic logic that asserts interest rate adjustment can ensure full employment. That fallacious logic has been augmented by ZLB economics which claims times of severe demand shortage may require negative interest rates, which policy must deliver since the market cannot. Regarding policy assessment, NIRP turns a blind eye to the possibility that negative interest rates may reduce AD, cause financial fragility, create a macroeconomics of whiplash owing to contradictions between policy today and tomorrow, promote currency wars that undermine the international economy, and foster a political economy that spawns toxic politics. Worst of all, NIRP maintains and encourages the flawed model of growth, based on debt and asset price inflation, which has already done such harm

10--The world thinks americans are violent, greedy and arrogant...Uh, huh


A worldwide survey found that majorities of people in the U.K., Canada, Spain and Australia think of Americans as violent, greedy and arrogant.
The poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, found that a median of 54 percent of people in countries surveyed associated the negative trait of arrogance with Americans. Fifty-two percent associate greed, and 48 percent say Americans are violent....

Americans themselves don’t deny these attributions: Fifty-five percent said Americans are arrogant, 57 percent said they are greedy and 42 percent said they are violent. Those views vary by political affiliation, with Democrats associating Americans with those characteristics more than Republicans do

11--UK survey confirms that "Leave" driven by class war


Of 4,300 people asked, over three-quarters thought the class gulf was either “very” or “fairly” wide, while nearly three in four thought that it was “fairly” or “very” hard to move up in class.
The study says this is a rise of 65 percent over the last 11 years.
The investigation also found that people often remain attached to a working class identity even if they are in managerial roles.

Report author Miranda Phillips told the Independent newspaper on Thursday that what they found “chimed with some of the [post referendum] discussions on social division.
People find it harder to move between classes than they used to feel and people with working class identity are more likely to feel that.
On the critical question of immigration, she argued: “We know how people feel about their class correlates to how they feel about immigration....

However, anti-immigration feeling is also mixed up with a sense that public funding should not be cut and, by four out of every 10 people polled, a feeling that more should be spent on benefits – the highest support for welfare since 2003.

12--Obama Administration Offers Russia Deal on Military Cooperation in Syria

Obama tries to create defacto "no fly zone" in Syria


The Obama administration has offered Russia a deal to increase military cooperation on carrying out airstrikes against terrorist targets in Syria

The offer, which was sent to Moscow on Monday, proposes to share targets and coordinate in an extended bombing campaign against the Nusra Front militant group, The Washington Post newspaper reported, citing a source in the Obama administration.....

Given the difficulties involved in identifying separate rebel groups and separating al-Nusra Front from other groups, the Obama administration proposed designating entire geographic areas as off-limits for the Syrian air force, according to the Washington source.

13---Death toll in Istanbul airport attack rises to 41--(It looks like the Turkish gov knew attacks were coming)


Thirteen of the dead were foreign, including five Saudis, two Iraqis, a Tunisian, a Jordanian, a Ukrainian, and two people of Central Asian origin. CNN Türk identified one of the Central Asian victims as a “person of East Turkestan origin,” apparently a reference to the Xinjiang Autonomous Region in western China....

(Turkish gov complicit in attacks?)

Turkish, Israeli and Russian intelligence agencies had all given advance warnings of the attacks to the Belgian authorities, identifying the terrorists as Islamist fighters and the Brussels airport and subway as targets. Nonetheless, the attackers were not stopped, nor was security stepped up at the targeted locations. Protocols were manifestly in place for the attackers, as members of Islamist networks playing a central role in NATO foreign policy, to travel unhindered.

Significantly, initial reports have emerged to suggest that Turkish officials also had forewarning of Monday's terror attacks in Istanbul. Yesterday, Doğan TV's Ankara representative, Hande Firat, reported: “Intelligence units sent a warning letter to the top of the state and all its institutions in early June, around 20 days ago, about Istanbul.” The subject of the warning was ISIS, Firat indicated, and Ataturk Airport was mentioned as a possible target.

Turkish opposition politicians publicly questioned the role of the security services and of Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the attacks. İdris Baluken, deputy parliamentary group leader of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), said: “When bombs are going off in a place such as Atatürk Airport, we wonder what this country’s government, interior minister, intelligence and police are doing,” he said....

The attacks came as the AKP was trying to carry out a broad shift in its foreign policy, setting it on course for a confrontation with ISIS, just as ISIS also faces serious setbacks in Iraq after the loss of Fallujah to Iraqi government forces. Until recently, Turkey was locked in a bitter confrontation with Russia, having recklessly shot down a Russian warplane last year over Syria, where Russian forces allied with the Syrian government were attacking jihadist militias. Moscow also accused Turkey of complicity with ISIS.
In recent weeks, however, Turkey has been moving closer to Russia and also trying to deepen its ties with Israel.

The day before the attack, Yıldırım announced that a “normalization process had begun” with Russia, after Erdoğan wrote a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin to apologize for the shooting down of the Russian jet. At the same time, Turkey was preparing initiatives to improve ties with both Israel and Egypt, whose military dictator Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power in a putsch that toppled a Muslim Brotherhood government allied to the AKP.

It appears likely that, with this latest bloody attack, ISIS was sending a signal to the Turkish regime that ISIS and its regional allies still can do considerable damage to Turkey, should the AKP government turn on them

14---Sanders’ “political revolution” revealed: Nationalist reaction and support for Clinton


In his speech in Monessen, Trump at one point indicated the pro-corporate reality behind his posture of concern for the plight of workers. “We will make America the best place in the world to start a business, hire workers, and open a factory,” he declared. “This includes massive tax reform to lift the crushing burdens on American workers and businesses. We will also get rid of wasteful rules and regulations which are destroying our job creation capacity…”

In other words, his “America First” program means the removal of whatever remains of corporate taxes and restrictions on the capitalists’ ability to exploit the working class.

It also means the intensification of the confrontation with China, Russia and other rivals of American imperialism; the escalation of the drive toward world war; the adoption of torture as a legitimate policy; and a massive buildup of the repressive powers of the state. These policies are openly proclaimed by Trump, but they follow as well from the nationalism promoted by Sanders.
They are the policies of the most reactionary sections of the ruling class in the face of mounting economic crisis, proliferating geo-political conflicts and a resurgence of working class struggle...

The outcome of Sanders’ “political revolution” is not only his own total integration into the Democratic Party, but his emergence as spokesman for its most nationalist wing. As he justifies his support for Clinton as necessary to stop Trump, Sanders adopts Trump’s economic program.

Those who believed Sanders’ claims to be a socialist and were lured on that basis into supporting his campaign are getting a serious lesson in politics. The consequences of the subordination of social opposition in the working class and among young people to the Sanders campaign are being revealed.

The answer to the relentless assault on the living standards of the working class is not economic autarky and the strengthening of national borders, but the revolutionary struggle to place the corporations and banks under the democratic control of the working class, and the unification of workers across all national lines in opposition to all of the capitalists and all of their governments

15--Clinton Email: Assad Must Be Toppled to Protect Israel

16--71% of Americans Think the Economy is “Rigged”


17--Seven Years Into the U.S. Recovery and It's Finally Starting to Feel Good (Author is clearly out of touch)


The thing is, that labor-market improvement hasn't always felt great: in some cases, people who lost well-paying, skilled jobs have found themselves in lower-paying positions that don't fit their qualifications. For people who graduated into the early years of the recovery, the still-tough job market may have left permanent scars.

Participation is lower, but mostly due to demographics

One trend that took some shine off of falling joblessness was the simultaneous drop in labor force participation. While much of the decline probably owes to demographic changes, many economists think that at least part of the drop was caused by discouraged job seekers throwing in the towel...

Wages are starting to pick up

Wages are another factor that has kept economic growth from feeling great to many Americans. They stagnated in the wake of the recovery. But recently, they've begun to creep up....

Globalization has led to stagnant incomes for middle-class workers worldwide as lower-income people who mostly live in developing countries like China and India and the very rich advanced.

18--Bubble Finance is a giant engine of reverse Robin Hood redistribution.


...It embodies a sweeping fiscal intervention in the natural flows of the free market that punishes savers, laborers, self-funded main street entrepreneurs and the retired populations in favor of speculators, the holders of existing financial assets and the dealers in money.
Bubble Finance is an affront to both democratic governance and true capitalist prosperity. The Trump voters, the Brexit voters, the masses rallying to the populist banners throughout Europe above all else represent a reactivation of the political machinery in a last ditch campaign to stop the financial elites and their regime of Bubble Finance

As on observer put it, the geography of the vote said it all:
“If you’ve got money, you vote in,” she said, with a bracing certainty. “If you haven’t got money, you vote out.” We were in Collyhurst, the hard-pressed neighbourhood on the northern edge of Manchester city centre last Wednesday, and I had yet to find a remain voter.
Look at the map of those results, and that huge island of “in” voting in London and the south-east; or those jaw-dropping vote-shares for remain in the centre of the capital: 69% in Tory Kensington and Chelsea; 75% in Camden; 78% in Hackney, contrasted with comparable shares for leave in such places as Great Yarmouth (71%), Castle Point in Essex (73%), and Redcar and Cleveland (66%). Here is a country so imbalanced it has effectively fallen over.
The rise of Trumpism in the US reflects the same social and economic fracture. To wit, Bubble Finance has also drastically unbalanced the US as between the bicoastal zones of prosperity it has enabled and the fly-over zones its has effectively left behind.



19--What could go wrong--Corporations boost debt by $15 trillion since financial crisis


"Figure 1 looks at global non-financial corporate debt/GDP based on the BIS dataset and definitions. Whilst it’s not always easy to categorise debt into various buckets and whilst we have some issues with slightly different results across different data providers it’s fair to say that the BIS data is the best way of looking at the global debt picture.

So non-financial debt has increased significantly in this cycle. On this measure the increase is of the magnitude of around $15 trillion since the lows after the financial crisis." - source Deutsche Bank

20--Dems oppose leftward push from Camp Bernie--The Party eleites conceded nothing to Bernie supporters


Anyone who thinks the Democratic Party’s left will stand down soon should consult his statement Sunday about the party’s platform. He criticized the platform committee for voting down planks opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, supporting a $15 an hour federal minimum wage, and proposing a carbon tax and a fracking ban.

Having already criticized the existence of Democratic superdelegates and the Clintons’ dependence on Wall Street largess, Mr. Sanders is laying down more markers that could serve as rallying points for an insurgent movement to disrupt the Democratic Party after November, win or (especially) lose.
American politics is being convulsed, and neither party is immune. 

21--What Really Drives Anti-Immigration Feelings       --National identity and border control, not economic worries, drive anti-immigrant sentiment, suggesting ways to combat it ((A shameless attempt to pull the wool over peoples eyes to achieve the corporate objective of cheap labor)


Countering the backlash against immigration and globalization will require not just correcting misinformation sown by opponents, but controlling the number and composition of immigrants so citizens believe immigration policy is in the country’s best interests, not the immigrants’...

This is what Australia and Canada do. They award points based on ability to speak English (and, in Canada, French), education, job skills and family sponsorship. This is one reason more than half of Canada’s immigrants are selected for economic reasons and just a quarter for family reasons; in the U.S., the proportions are roughly reversed. Australia and Canada have both extremely high foreign-born population shares and lofty levels of public support for immigration. (Cherry picking immigrants can help reduce opposition)...

How might Britain and the U.S. learn from such policies? Britain, post-Brexit, could cap in some way the number of immigrants from the EU. The U.S. could introduce a point system to screen people who seek to come to the country, take more steps to legalize and assimilate the current illegal population, and do more to prevent illegal immigration. Thus far, grass-roots Republicans have largely stymied such compromises.
This is a move away from the ideal of open borders that globalization advocates and the European Union have long dreamed of. But by turning back the tide of populist-fueled grievance, such measures could actually cement support for open borders in the long run (A shameless attempt to pull the wool over peoples eyes to achieve the corporate objective of cheap labor)

22--Fed "greenlights" another voracious round of financial engineering---Big banks dial up buybacks after stress-testing win

("banks were not doing well even before Brexit---and post Berxit the unknowns are even larger as far as global growth expectations and the yield curve ...the spread between 2s and 10s is at a 9 year low. So why be positive now?"...Banks are expected to retyrn $80 bil to shareholders via buybacks and dividends within the next year)
A number of banks are ratcheting up buybacks and dividends after passing stress tests, which marks good news for their investors in a difficult year.

The announcement of dividends and buybacks comes in a year where big banks in the U.S. and abroad have seen their share values hammered by market volatility and decreasing expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates this year, which is expected to have a substantial impact on their revenue and forward-looking projections

23--Why Do People Hate John Maynard Keynes? (archive)


Some people seem to infer from this that output and income can be raised by increasing the quantity of money. But this is like trying to get fat by buying a larger belt. In the United States to-day your belt is plenty big enough for your belly. It is a most misleading thing to stress the quantity of money, which is only a limiting factor, rather than the volume of expenditure, which is the operative factor (Money supply is irrelevant if no one is spending)

Keynes could see that monetary policy alone could not restore confidence or put the economy back on track. He also knew that interest rates and credit easing did not provide an effective transmission mechanism for increasing demand, which is why the government needs to provide fiscal support when businesses slash investment and consumers are forced to increase their savings. Here’s Keynes again from Chapter 12 of The General Theory:
“For my own part I am now somewhat skeptical of the success of a merely monetary policy….. I expect to see the State, which is in a position to calculate the marginal efficiency of capital-goods on long views and on the basis of the general social advantage, taking an ever greater responsibility for directly organizing investment.”

This is what fiscal stimulus is all about; helping the economy to recover by generating activity (eg. government spending) when consumers are on the ropes and businesses refuse to invest. The alternative is higher unemployment, lower revenues, falling prices, soaring defaults, slower growth and a reinforcing downward spiral. That said, we could see deflationary pressures reemerge as early as next month when Bernanke’s QE2 ends and the flaws in the Fed’s strategy become more apparent. Here’s Keynes on the topic:
“The way to keep economies booming was by maintaining a high volume of investment and increasing the propensity to consume ‘by the redistribution of incomes…so that a level of employment would require a smaller volume of current investment to support it.” (Robert Skidelsky, “Keynes; The Return of the Master”, page 68, Public Affairs, New York)
So Keynes supported redistribution? You bet. He had the foresight to realize that gross inequality leads to flagging demand. When workers no longer have sufficient wherewithal to keep the economy growing via consumption, then the system has to be rejiggered to shore up demand. It’s not a question of Big Government “soaking the rich” to create a socialist Utopia. That’s bunkum. It’s a matter of recognizing the inherent shortcomings of the system and finding ways to make it operate more efficiently...

Keynes, “apart from the necessity of central controls to bring about an adjustment between the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest, there is no more reason to socialize economic life than there was before” (“John Maynard Keynes”, The Library of Economics and Liberty)....

Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), on the other hand, was clearly Keynesian. It provided fiscal relief directly to the economy and–according to the CBO—it substantially lowered unemployment, narrowed the output gap, and increased growth. The ARRA stopped the financial crisis from turning into another Great Depression, which proves that Keynesian stimulus works.
But there’s more to Keynes than just fiscal stimulus. The man had a keen grasp of investor psychology, human nature and the workings of markets. Here’s a clip from The General Theory that gives a sample of his thinking:

“Our desire to hold money as a store of wealth is a barometer of the degree of our distrust of our own calculations and conventions concerning the future….The possession of actual money lulls our disquietude; and the premium we require to make us part with money is the measure of the degree of our disquietude.”

That’s brilliant, and it explains why a sudden downturn in the market can quickly turn into a full-blown crash. Investors get scared, withdraw their money and hunker down. Pretty soon, the equity share supporting the markets vanishes and a bank run ensues thrusting the economy into a protracted swoon. And it’s all because people lose confidence in their ability to anticipate what will happen in the future. Investment is all about anticipation; anticipation and confidence. Here’s how Keynes summed it up:

“It would be foolish, in forming our expectations, to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain. It is reasonable, therefore, to be guided to a considerable degree by the facts about which we feel somewhat confident, even though they may be less decisively relevant to the issue than other facts about which our knowledge is vague and scanty. For this reason the facts of the existing situation enter, in a sense disproportionately, into the formation of our long-term expectations; our usual practice being to take the existing situation and to project it into the future, modified only to the extent that we have more or less definite reasons for expecting a change.

The state of long-term expectation, upon which our decisions are based, does not solely depend, therefore, on the most probable forecast we can make. It also depends on the confidence with which we make this forecast — on how highly we rate the likelihood of our best forecast turning out quite wrong. If we expect large changes but are very uncertain as to what precise form these changes will take, then our confidence will be weak.

The state of confidence, as they term it, is a matter to which practical men always pay the closest and most anxious attention.”

24--Santalli video: "If globalization pushes down prices in good times and bad, wouldn't tariffs help to raise prices (thus ending deflationary pressures)?


The unassailable logic of Tariffs.


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-..

Countering the backlash against immigration and globalization will require not just correcting misinformation sown by opponents, but controlling the number and composition of immigrants so citizens believe immigration policy is in the country’s best interests, not the immigrants’world/world/article86751152.html#storylink=cpy


Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article86751152.html#storylink=cpy

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