Friday, February 20, 2015

Today's links

Today's quote:   "Nobody who voted for SYRIZA  has reason to ever trust them again, and their Eurozone partners will trust them for only so long, and to the degree, that they demonstrate what a subjugated people they have become. I expect that in Greece, as in American politics, nobody will vote for the equivalent of Republican-Lite Democrats when you can get the real thing without quite so much phony blather."


1--I may get out of US stocks: Nobel-winner Shiller, cnbc


2--YANIS VAROUFAKIS:  The Greek economy is finished. The Greek economy is in a great, great depression... There is no power, no force within the Greek economy, with Greek society that can avert – it’s like – imagine if we were in Ohio in 1931 and we were to ask: what can Ohio politicians do to get Ohio out of the Great Depression? The answer is nothing.


3--Germany Gives Greece Just Enough Rope: Varoufakis Says If Troika Rejects Reforms "The Deal Is Dead And Buried", zero hedge


Notes:  V and T are going to have to publicly denounce everything they promised in the election.The germans have them over a barrel  from zero hedge:  "As usual, the fine print of any European "deal" is revealed not only after the agreement, but after the US market close. So for all those waiting for the real punchline, here it is - it also is the reason why Greece got until Monday to reveal the list of "reforms" it would undertake:

"We’re in trouble next week if creditors don’t accept Greece’s reforms", Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says. "If our list of reforms is not backed by the institutions, this agreement is dead and buried."

 under the conditionality of the Troika's approval, the Tsipras government now has to walk back essentially all the promises it made to the Greek people - promises which by some accounts amount to over €20 billion in additional spending - or the Troika, pardon Institutions, will yank the entire deal and the Grexit can then commence.
4---How Greece Folded To Germany: The Complete Breakdown, zero hedge





5---Greece Capitulates On Bailout, Reaches Four Month Deal, naked capitalism
My big fat Greek sellout
The Open Europe blog (hat tip Stephen M) has a good summary of the deal terms. Key items:
What points has Greece capitulated on?
Completion of the current review – Greece has basically agreed to conclude the current bailout. Any funding is conditional on such a process…
Remaining bank recapitalisation funds – Greece wanted this money to be held by the Hellenic Financial Stabilisation Fund (HFSF) over the extension period, and possibly be open for use outside the banking sector. However, this has been denied and the bonds will return to the EFSF, although they will remain available for any bank recapitalisation needs.

Role of the IMF – The Eurogroup statement says, “We also agreed that the IMF would continue to play its role”…


No unilateral action – According to the statement,+
The Greek authorities commit to refrain from any rollback of measures and unilateral changes to the policies and structural reforms that would negatively impact fiscal targets, economic recovery or financial stability, as assessed by the institutions.

In light of this, a large number of promises that SYRIZA made in its election campaign will now be hard to fulfil. In the press conference given by Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem and EU Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, it was suggested that this pledge also applied to the measures which were announced by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in his speech to the Greek parliament earlier this week – when he announced plans to roll back some labour market reforms passed by the previous Greek government.

Four months rather than six months – Greece requested a six-month extension, but the Eurogroup only agreed to four months. This is a crucial point: it means the extension expires at the end of June. As the graph below shows, Greece faces two crucial bond repayments to the ECB in July and August which total €6.7bn. This is a very tough hard deadline. There is limited time for the longer term negotiations which will take place – provided that a final agreement on the extension is reached. It is very likely we will be back in a similar situation at the end of June….
As we said yesterday, Greece has folded this hand but the game of poker continues. Greece is now short stack and living hand to hand (day to day). It continues to be in a very tough position and how the evaporation of the vision which SYRIZA sold at the election is a crucial and potentially explosive unknown




6---Since 9/11, The U.S. Has Been Involved In More Than 5 Wars … And They’ve All Been Disasters, WA blog


7--Paul Mason, Guardian...Greece gets its deal.. But if the detail’s wrong ‘we’re finished’
Here’s why. The draft does not give Germany everything it wanted. It allows Greece to vary its fiscal target this year – meaning it can run a lower surplus, as yet unspecified. In addition, according to Varoufakis, there is “creative ambiguity” about the surpluses


Greece is required to run beyond this year. Second it maintains the words Varoufakis proposed on Thursday: that Greece will not rollback old measures or unilateral policies “that would negatively impact fiscal targets, economic recovery or fiscal stability” – however with the addition of the words “as assessed by the institutions”. This clarifies who gets to decide whether the revised Greek programme threatens these things. By


Monday Greece has to submit a list of measures, in order to get the money to recapitalise its banks, and roll over its loans. Varoufakis spun this at a press conference as something that would be assessed jointly – so effectively the power game between Germany, Greece and everybody in between now continues, but with the IMF – whose methodologies are considerably less doctrinaire than the ECB on what Syriza proposes to do – in the loop. In addition, the word “bridge” appears in the agreement. Dijsselbloem indicated that it would be a bridge to any future arrangement – and in that sense, the German opposition to any signal of the possibility of a transition phase was overcome - See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/greece-deal-details-wrong-were-finished/3395#more-3395





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