Friday, August 29, 2014

Today's links

1---Military situation on the ground, Vineyard of the Saker

The Ukies are losing, badly.  All the reports from Novorussian sources agree that the Ukie forces are either surrounded or in full retreat.  But Ukies sources also confirm this.  In Kiev, angry demonstrations by nationalists accuse the military high command of minimizing the real casualty figures, of having abandoned the forces fighting in the Donbass.  Even Oleg Liashko has stated that the Ukie forces have been "betrayed".  Demonstrations have taken place in from of the Ukie General Staff which many Right Sector protesters which are demanding the creation of a "generals battalion" which would be formed of only generals who would be sent to fight personally (an excellent idea, which I fully approve of!).  Others are also demanding the resignation of the Ukie Minister of Defense.  Ukrainian woman are regularly stopping military convoys on the roads, often by standing or lying down in front of trucks, to prevent their men from being sent to death.  Entire Ukie battalions are deserting from the front and Special Forces are sent to stop them.  Apparently, the Ukie police is afraid to arrest the soldiers for desertion because of their large numbers.  The city of Mariupol is now surrounded and the local political elites and SBU personnel have fled.  Poroshenko cancelled his trip to Turkey and gathered his Security Council.  Kolomoiski, who controls the southwestern Ukraine, did the same thing with his own Security Council (yes, since he has his own army, is also has his own security council).  Tymoshenko wants the introduction of full martial law.  The male population up to 60 is now conscripted (though not called up as far as I know).  Iatseniuk and Poroshenko have both demanded that NATO intervene and accept the Ukraine as some special ally.  In other words, all the signs are of total complete and utter panic in Kiev....


In the UN Security Council the Russian Representative, Vitalii Churkin, has dared the Ukie Rep to explain where the recording of the conversations between the Kiev ATC and MH17 were hidden and why...


Where do we go from here?

It' hard to tell.  I think that Oleg Tsarev is right when he says that as soon as the Ukie regime begins collapsing the West will suddenly ask for negotiations.  Zakharchenko in his crucial press conference has clearly indicated that options such as federalization or decentralization are off the table and that nothing short of full independence will do.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  There are plenty of historical examples which show that separatist movements eventually settled for less, often wisely so.  But in this case, we are dealing with several intertwined problems



2---JPMorgan Warns Military Escalation In Ukraine "May Lead To A Lehman-Style Shock", zero hedge


Lehman moment. We believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock. We note there are substantial fundamental differences between the current situation and the 2008/09 crisis; the oil price is now holding up relatively well and the economic contraction may not be that deep. On the other hand, for traded stocks, the challenges and risks to investability presented by sanctions could be practically open-ended. We demonstrate that revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50% from an index perspective, and ~40% from the forward P/E perspective (Fig. 1 and 2).


3---ISIS loaded with ex-Baathists, NYT


4---Watershed press conference by top Novorussian officials (MUST SEE!) , Saker


5---Lavrov: No proof Russian troops in Ukraine, RT


No facts about Russian military being present on the territory of Ukraine have ever been presented, Sergey Lavrov pointed out, while speculation on the issue has been voiced repeatedly, he stressed.


“It’s not the first time we’ve heard wild guesses, though facts have never been presented so far,” Lavrov said at a press conference in Moscow.
“There have been reports about satellite imagery exposing Russian troop movements. They turned out to be images from videogames. The latest accusations happen to be much the same quality,” he said.


“We’ll react by remaining persistent in our policies to stay bloodshed and give a start to the nationwide dialogue and negotiations about the future of Ukraine, with participation of all Ukrainian regions and political forces, something that was agreed upon in Geneva back in April and in Berlin [in August], yet what is being so deliberately evaded by our Western partners now,” Lavrov said.
Sergey Lavrov pointed out that the only means to decrease the number of casualties among the civilian population in Donetsk and Lugansk Regions is by self-defense militia pushing Ukrainian troops and National Guards out.


“From a military point of view self-defense militia are doing a very simple thing – they are driving Ukrainian troops and National Guards from their positions used to shell peaceful cities, destroying kindergartens, schools, hospitals, Orthodox churches and infrastructure, and killing a large number of civilians,” Lavrov said.


6---Abegeddon: Household Spending Re-Collapses As Japanese Unemployment Jumps To 9-Month High, zero hedge


Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse... In a veritable deluge of data from Japan tonight, there is - simply put - no silver lining. First, Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.8% - its highest since Nov 2013 (despite the highest job-to-applicant ratio in 22 years). Then, household spending re-collapsed 5.9% for the 4th month in a row (showingh no sign of post-tax-hike-recovery). Industrial Production was up next and dramatically missed expectations with a mere 0.2% rebound after last month's plunge (-0.9% YoY - worst in 13 months), quickly followed by a 0.5% drop in Japanes retail trade MoM (missing hope for a 0.3% gain). That's good news, right? Means moar QQE, right? Wrong! Japanese CPI came hot at 3.4% YoY with energy costs and electronic goods 'hyperinflating' at 8.8% and 9.1% respectively. As Goldman's chief Japan economist warns, "the BOJ doesn’t have another bazooka," adding that "The window for reform may already have been half closed." We're gonna need another arrow, Abe!


7---The committee to blow up the world, Bill Bonner


Here’s the latest from Bloomberg:
Shares worldwide added more than $2.2 trillion in value since Aug. 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Optimism that central banks will support economic growth sent the MSCI All-Country World Index up 3.8 percent from its low this month. The S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the last 13 days and the Nasdaq Composite Index is about 10 percent from an all-time high.Global markets are surmounting crises in Ukraine, the Gaza Strip and Iraq as investors renew bets that stimulus will revive growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index posted its biggest two-day gain since April after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled policy makers may consider introducing an asset-buying plan. Japan’s Topix index is near its highest level since January, rebounding from losses earlier this year.
Put them all together, and publicly traded equities are now worth more than $66 trillion – just shy of total world GDP. That’s $12 trillion more than they were worth in the beginning of 2013… and it’s $30 trillion more than they were worth 10 years ago


8---OSCE: No participation of Russian military, hardware in Ukraine hostilities — official, itar tass


9--Ilargi: EU Gas Supply Is In Real And Imminent Danger, NC


10---Boomer Wealth Dented by Mortgages Poses U.S. Risk, Bloomberg


11--Continuing media silence on the fate of flight MH17, wsws


12---White House threatens Russia over alleged incursion into eastern Ukraine, wsws


13---Inside the leadership of Islamic State: how the new 'caliphate' is run, Telegraph


14---Western media neglect of Moscow’s MH17 evidence is shameful’, Nile Bowie


15--MH17 FULLY EXPOSED!! You Won't Believe The SHOCKING TRUTH About the Ukraine FALSE FLAG , you tube


16---MH17 - We know with 99% certainty who shot down MH17 - updated Aug 12 , you tube


17---Why have the media and Obama administration gone silent on MH17, wsws


18---Conspiracy of silence?  MH17: Nations Conspire To Keep Investigations Classified – Leaked Document Reveals, IBT



19--When Do We Start Calling This “The Greater Depression”?: (Early) Friday Focus for August 29, 2014, De Long
Dropbox 20140825 Financial Crisis to Great Recession to Lesser Depression to Greater Depression html
Dropbox 20140825 Financial Crisis to Great Recession to Lesser Depression to Greater Depression html
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